How Pakistan won over Trump to become an unlikely mediator in the Iran war

Pakistan's role as intermediary in this conflict took many by surprise.

But perhaps it shouldn't.

The head of its armed forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is in US President Donald Trump's favour. The US leader frequently refers to him as his "favourite" Field Marshal and has previously spoken about how Munir knows Iran "better than most".

Iran is not only a neighbour of Pakistan, with whom it shares a 900km (559 miles) or so border, but by its own messages also has a "brotherly" relationship with deep cultural and religious ties.

It also has no US air bases.

And unlike many of the usual intermediaries in the Gulf it has not yet been pulled into the conflict.

Crucially, it is willing to wade in - peace between the US and Iran by many accounts would be in its interest.

Still, there have been questions about how a country embroiled in conflict with two of its neighbours - Afghanistan and India - has positioned itself as a bringer of peace.

The country is currently bombing Afghanistan and tensions with India led to a fear of nuclear escalation only last year.

Pakistan has so far walked the tightrope between Iran and the US, passing messages between the two sides, hosting foreign ministers from other concerned Muslim nations and hitting the diplomatic telephones.

But the balancing act is not risk-free.

Much to lose

Pakistan is highly dependent on imported oil, much of it coming through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Pakistan, I'd argue, more than almost any other country outside of the Middle East has a lot of skin in the game here," Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC.

"It has a really compelling interest to do what it can to contribute to de-escalation efforts."

Pakistan's government increased the price of petrol and diesel by around 20% at the start of March and has already introduced measures including a four-day working week for government employees to try to save fuel.

"If the war continues, the economic pressures in Pakistan will increase tremendously," says Farhan Siddiqi, Professor of Political Science at the Institute of Business Administration, Karachi.

AFP via Getty Images

Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected Pakistan, which relies heavily on oil imported through that waterway

There's also a fear about what an escalation could bring.

In September last year, Pakistan signed a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, agreeing that "any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both".

It's led to questions about what Pakistan would do if Saudi Arabia joined the war and invoked the pact.

"The problem for us is that if we are asked to join the war on the Saudi side, our entire Western border will be largely insecure," says Siddiqi.

Pakistan is already in "all-out war" with Afghanistan; it accuses the Afghan Taliban of harbouring terrorist groups inside its borders, which the Taliban government deny.

When challenged about its apparent contradictory position to diplomacy when applied to its own conflicts, Pakistan has said that it tried years of talks that did not yield the security it needed.

But Siddiqi points out that opening another front is not the only concern were Pakistan to be pulled into the war, adding that there is also the "domestic reputational cost".

In the days after Iran's Supreme Leader was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike, pro-Iran demonstrators took to the streets across Pakistan - several were killed including those who tried to storm the US consulate in Karachi.

"Public sentiment in Pakistan is overwhelmingly pro-Iran," says Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistan ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

"I'm sure that Pakistan's decision makers have been very sensitive to that."

Something to gain

And then there's the issue of Pakistan's global standing.

"Pakistan is very sensitive to criticism that it doesn't have influence on the global stage," said Kugelman. "I don't think that's its main motivation for positioning itself as it has, but it has something to do with this as well."

"This is high-stakes diplomacy, no question about it," adds Lodhi. "It's high-risk and high-reward. If it succeeds, of course, it catapults Pakistan to the top of the global diplomatic game."