Preparing for war? The real reason China sent warships to Australia | 60 Minutes Australia

 You don't have enough aircraft. You don't have enough ships. Ratcheting up the rhetoric. So, we're already at war with China. Ask the Chinese, they'd tell you. Is it just Beijing bluff? You're going to lose. Our soldiers would be brave and our weapons would be lesser. All real this time. Australia is very much on the menu. Our chief of navy has his say. There are a thousand ways to start a conflict. There's only two ways that it ends. That's next on 60 Minutes. In the increasingly less than delicate dance for dominance in our region, there's no denying China boasts superior force when compared with our military. It's an advantage they love to show off like they did earlier this year when Chinese warships provocatively sailed a lap of Australia. But while Beijing sticks are impressive, their carrots are also proving to be effective weapons, especially when it comes to influencing our near neighbors. Chinese money has been buying plenty of friendship in the South Pacific. So, what's the next step Australia should be taking as China moves closer and closer to our shores? HMAS Hobart [Music] It's dawn off the coast of Western Australia. In the early sun, these waters are vast and peaceful for now. But we're about to find out just how perilous our ocean border has become. [Music] as we join the crew of the mighty Australian warship HMAS Hobart on a submarine hunting exercise. It's a very difficult mission. Obviously, not being able to see where the enemy is and what the enemy is doing makes that really complex. Train for your right turn thrust 20%. Train thrust. Commanding officer Alli Withers is in charge of the ship which carries 200 odd crew members and is armed to the hilt. GWSPO Mountain 51 burst one engage. So we're an air warfare destroyer. So our main arament on board is uh our surfaceto-air missile systems. So, we've got a 48 cell vertical launch system uh with standard missile 2 on board. We also have a 5-in gun. We've got some smaller uh Typhoon guns uh as well as our torpedoes um on board and that's really the they're our main armorament on board. I know you're very focused on the dayto-day running of the ship and the exercise, but this security environment is is tense and it's changing. Does that weigh on you? Yeah, absolutely. And for me, you know, my mission is to make sure that my ship and my crew are ready at all times to respond when we need to. The Navy's readiness was tested in February when three Chinese warships sailed into these waters unannounced. It was a confronting site, thought to be the furthest south the People's Liberation Army had ever ventured, stopping to conduct live fire drills in the Tasman Sea. The Chinese are signaling. They are practicing and rehearsing and they are collecting. This is the first time we've seen a task group from the PLA Navy circumn Australia. That is true. For all the speculation and hysteria at the time, there's one man who knows how it all played out. The chief of the Royal Australian Navy, Vice Admiral Mark Hammond is under more pressure than ever before. They were here expressing uh to the world their capability as a bluewater navy to deploy across the Indo-Pacific. Uh, so I think we will see more deployments like this. Tonight, for the first time, he's speaking publicly about what was reported as a total surprise to our military and authorities, but the chief insists that wasn't the case. Were you caught off guard? Uh, no. We uh we're aware of their approach uh through the uh Indonesian archipelago for some time. In fact, the Navy had been monitoring the Chinese ships. But once they crossed into international waters between New Zealand and Australia, our boats stopped following them. They did spend a little over 3 weeks uh in and around Australia's exclusive economic zone. They didn't spend a minute in our exclusive economic zone without one of our surface combatants monitoring their activities. Were they threatening us? Uh there were no threatening interactions between our navies at all during that period. So why didn't they warn Australian authorities they were coming? Well, I don't think we always transmit um our intent to deploy a ship to the South China Sea, for example. The Chief is understandably defensive and diplomatic, but there's no doubt the deployment exposed Australia's vulnerability. The Chinese have been very clear about what they intend to do. and we just choose not to believe them. And Australia is very much on the menu. That holds. Retired US Marine Colonel Grant Nam has strong views about China's visit. Grant spent decades heading up military intelligence in the Indo-Pacific and says Beijing is sending a clear message to Australia. So they're telling Australia there's more coming. So this is a deliberate aggressive show of force. Yes. Uh this is a very wellthoughtout, well planned move with with consideration of the political effects. While sailing around Australia, the Chinese ships held live fire drills in international waters in the Tasmin Sea. And that's where it got really humiliating for authorities. The only way you knew about this was because a Virgin pilot heard about it and called in. Correct. Correct. We had already um ceased shadowing them at that point cuz they were more than 100 miles outside of our exclusive economic zone. Well and truly into international waters. Uh and navies generally don't follow other navies around in international waters. It's clear the incident has put our defense forces on high alert. But for Grant Nam, it's too little, too late. And the Chinese conception of war is very different than ours. We look at it as a 100 meter race where you go up to the line and you shake loose and then someone shoots the gun off and then the race has begun. So we don't see ourselves at war. The Chinese do. And to them, the shooting part is the last step. But the rest of it is this political warfare, the economic warfare, the elite capture, um the the propaganda, the psychological warfare. So, we're already at war with China. Very much. Ask the Chinese, they'd tell Tonga you. If he's right, it's clearly a very different type of battle. And make no mistake, Australia's flanks are exposed. As you'll see, China has already dug in. The West dropped the ball and China picks up the loose ball. [Music] Deep in the South Pacific lies the beautiful and humble nation of Tonga. Made up of 170 islands and just over 100,000 people. [Music] With its coconut palm lined beaches and warm hospitality, Tonga is known as the friendly islands. And Australia to the west has always fostered that friendship. But now there's a better friend in town, China. This small island nation is at the center of a tugof-war between Beijing and the West. And you don't have to look far from the idyllic foreshore to see who's [Music] winning. From supermarkets to major infrastructure and government buildings like the striking St. George Palace, China is firmly entrenched in day-to-day life here. So this is St. George Palace. Why is it so important to Tonggins? It's the prime minister's office, mutual finance and immigrations. And it was a gift from China. Indeed, it was a gift from China. 20 million. Yeah. Over 20 million. Over 20 million. It's a lot of money. It is. It is. Retired Colonel Camelier Lu was Tonga's ambassador to China for 5 years. Now he's secretary general for the Tonga China Friendship Association. And are there strings attached to that? There's no string attached at all. Uh it's a free will, you know. It's it's an unconditional love. Unsurprisingly, Camelier has only praise for his nation's close ties to Beijing. How would you describe Tonga's relationship with China? It's more than just a friendship, isn't it? It's more like brothers and sister. Uh what I mean by that is that Tonga and China, they have something in common. Chinese culture is almost similar in a sense to Tongan culture. Traditionally, Tonga's allies and partners were America, Australia. What happened? What changed? To be frank about it, you know, because the West dropped the ball and China picks up the loose ball. Do you feel you have to pick a side between China and the West? We don't have to pick side. We are friends to all, enemy to none. However, we we secretly know who to make friends too. You know, [Music] you can see the fruits of that friendship right across Tonga's capital, which is pitted with multi-million dollar gifts or grants from China, like the new $55 million sports complex where Tonga hopes to host international events. While just down the road, Chinese contractors are restoring the tombs of the nation's royal family. A revered job here, the last remaining monarchy in the Pacific. When it comes to foreign policy and alliances, who makes decisions? The final call under our constitution is his majesty the king. [Music] Lord Faka Fenua is a member of the royal family and the speaker of Tonga's parliament. It's a role that requires considerable diplomacy, which is perhaps why he says Tonga must embrace both communist China and the West. How would you characterize Tonga's relationship with Australia? I would say our relationship is one similar to that on the football field. We have a a friendly rivalry, but it's one based on mutual respect and understanding, and Australia has a pivotal role to play as a regional power in the Pacific. And they have always been there for us in in Tonga. Walking around the streets of Tonga, it seems like Australia perhaps hasn't been there enough. I wouldn't say China and Australia are competing as per se. It's not a zero sum game. Um, a lot of Chinese have migrated into Tonga and they've become Tongan citizens. And interestingly enough, if you go to the stores, a lot of them only speak Mandarin and Tongen, not even English. And so we find that um there's a lot of similarity between our two cultures. [Music] Despite those similarities and beyond China's apparent generosity, Tonga is also a very visible example of debt trap diplomacy. This is the main street of the capital, Nuku Aloofa. Most of this city was destroyed in pro-democracy riots back in 2006. And China stepped in, lending Tonga the money to rebuild. It's now a 190 million debt. That's roughly a quarter of Tonga's GDP. The loan is due by 2030, but for this small developing country, it's proving almost impossible to pay back. Can Tonga ever repay that? The loan philosophy of China is something like that. If you loan from me 1,000, I said, "Okay, you pay me 100 a month. Then after 2 months, 3 months, can you come back? Can I delay paying my loan because my father has just died?" Okay. Okay. Delay for another 3 months. You're not worried about paying back this money? Well, we are worried. We We have to pay. There's There's no way we can't do it, you know. We have to pay it and ask for delay for another couple of years and then ask for another couple of years and then the next request for delay then China might come back and say okay pay the next year and the rest it's okay. Are there strings attached to China's money? No. No. There's no string of that. That's Chinese policy. But isn't Beijing buying the loyalty of the Tongan people, buying influence here? But they're not buying loyalty. you know they treat people the same even big country or small country they they treat the all the same but as Tonga delays paying off its debt China's presence in the country is growing how many of the shops and businesses are owned and run by China I think uh about 80% 80% or even bigger than [Music] Taiisi Taka is a local district officer equivalent to a mayor. He's watched with concern as Chinese shops have taken over his villages. So, China is in every aspect of life and business here. They doing uh shops, construction, hardwares. They doing fishing. They harvesting our sea cucumbers. They running their own bakery farm, poultry. Uh yeah. Do you fear they have too much control? Yes. Do you worry that China is taking over Tonga? Yes, I do. I do. I do. [Music] It's a snapshot of what's happening across the Pacific. Australia has watched with concern as Beijing signed a security deal with the Solomon Islands and just a couple of months ago an agreement with the Cook Islands around economic development and maritime cooperation. Chinese officers are embedded in police forces in Fiji and Vanuatu. While Samoa has struck a deal to collaborate with China on security if he has enough infrastructure and influence in this region, Xi Jinping can do whatever he wants, can't he? I don't think so. I think uh as part of Chinese policy is to respect our sovereignty. Mhm. Yeah. And you trust that? I trust them. [Applause] The Australian government doesn't share Cameli Lu's confidence and has been busy playing catchup, increasing aid and budget support for Tonga to $85 million over the next four years. And there's an important soft diplomacy game underway, too. [Applause] This joint defat and NRL program goes well beyond sport. I think it's important because we're talking about winning the hearts and minds of everyday people. That is something that transcends geopolitics. It's something that both Australian people and Tonga people love equally. But Lord Faka says Australia still has a long way to go. The diplomatic relations that I've personally experienced with Beijing is they have a very long-term measured approach and forge lasting relationships. So they play a long game. They do play a long game. They play a very long game. And as you'll see, China is in it to win it. Coming up, a dire warning to Australia. You don't have enough aircraft. You don't have enough ships. You would Joe Bo lose. When it comes to China's military and strategic ambitions, few people have more knowledge and experience than former Colonel Joe Bo. After more than three decades serving with China's People's Liberation Army or PLA, Joe Bo is eager to defend his nation's massive military buildup and acts of aggression in our region. China has undertaken the most rapid military expansion of any country since World War II. Can you understand why that is a threat to a country like Australia? No, I don't think I don't think you're right at all on this point because I would argue in a different way that China's rise has been unprecedentedly peaceful. Actually, it's a miracle in human history. Why does China need the largest navy in the world if its intention is peace? China's intention is not a secret because we have made it quite clear that we want to build a worldclass military. Being strong doesn't mean that you have to be a hedgeimma and this is not the case. There is no proof that China is you know becoming a hedgemon. Military alliances There is in fact plenty of proof that Beijing wants regional dominance combining its vast resources with soft diplomacy across the Pacific to embed Chinese dependency as we saw in the small island nation of Tonga. But Jo insists it's simply good business. Isn't the endgame for Beijing security agreements, military alliances? Not at all. For example, with all these Chinese projects, China of course will become influential, right? Yeah, that is for sure. But that does not mean that you are going to establish a sphere influence. Then you would seek alliance. Then you would have allies, then you behave like the United States. Yeah. And you know having that all together sometimes sounds good but actually it's a difficult job. Hurting the cats is never easy. So why should China bother with establishing spheres of influence if it is already influential around the world? So China doesn't need those those smaller allies. I don't think China need any allies. It's been described as the most challenging strategic environment we've seen in about 80 years. Chief of the Royal Australian Navy, Vice Admiral Mark Hammond is all too aware of the growing threat as China's Navy expands and intimidates. Do you think they're preparing for war? Governments don't invest billions of dollars into military capabilities for no reason at all. And the same is true of us. The Australian government has committed to doubling the size of our surface combatant force uh and transforming our submarine capability because our assessment of strategic environment. Um uh is that this is a worthwhile investment in the national interest and alongside our allies and partners uh the our collective maritime capabilities uh need to be uh able to deliver what we call a deterrent effect. Is that another way of saying we're not quite up to scratch at the moment? So, I would put it this way, Amelia. My my job as the chief of the Navy is to not rely upon a strategy of hope. My job is to be a pessimist uh and to try and see the world for what it is, not what I would wish it to be. So my reflex uh to that uh responsibility is to assume that things will get worse not better and to ensure that the Royal Australian Navy is prepared in all respects for any challenge which may come our way within the resources allocated. Brilliant. Straight inside. The chief is keen to show us they're well on their way. Today we're on the guided missile destroyer HMAS Brisbane, which has just had a considerable upgrade. When Brisbane goes to sea again, she will be fitted for and capable of firing uh the naval strike missile, which is one of the most capable anti-hship missiles um available right now. Um and then in uh in late last year, the Tomahawk land attack missile firing conducted by this ferry ship. So within 18 months, we've transformed a very capable surface combatant uh into one of the most modern and lethal surface combatants I think we've ever operated. While the unannounced appearance of a Chinese flotilla in Australian waters back in February has put our Navy on edge, incredibly, former PLA Colonel Joe B says it served us right. Would you not describe that as an aggressive activity, a show of force? I'm glad you mentioned this because actually this uh kind of sailing by Chinese Navy would provide to you a chance of soul searching of what you have done to China. Yeah, if that makes you to to think, I think that is good for you. Australia vs China He's referring to the Australian Navy's operations in the South China Sea, sailing through the Taiwan Strait to promote freedom of navigation, which Beijing sees as a provocation. So, was that retaliation? Well, I I think it's not a kind of retaliation, but it shows shows you first of all, if you are talking about the law, Chinese ships also have rights to do freedom of navigation. But if you do not like this concept, then think of what you have done to China. Yeah. And sense then think about what China has done to you. This is fair. It's not very friendly, is it to show up and do live fire exercises? Why wouldn't China warn us? Uh well, is it friendly that you have sent aircraft and ships so close to China? Yeah. To make all these provoc provocations. Who did it first? Do not do unto others what you would not do to yourself. Right? Historic speaking, you are always fighting other people's war. Right? Be in Gipoli, uh, beating Afghanistan. Yeah. Or even during the Second World War, you're always fighting other people's wars. Why should you always fight other people? Why would you always follow other people's footprint? Australia has a proud history of defending democracy, and Vice Admiral Hammond says that's not about to change. While he hopes he'll never see his Navy's training and preparedness put to the test in the theater of war, China's ambitions couldn't be any clearer. The PLA is now routinely rehearsing a blockade of the Taiwan Strait, practicing hitting key ports and energy infrastructure. I'm all in on diplomacy. I'm all in on deterrence, but I have to be all in on defense of our nation. And that begins with an assumption that despite everybody's best efforts, um, we find ourselves in a conflict. Okay? And there are a thousand ways to start a conflict. There's only two ways that it ends and they are in my view. You lose the national willpower to continue the fight or you lose the economic ability to continue the fight. Joe Bo claims that China only wants peace and prosperity as long as it's on Beijing's terms. And should tensions in the Taiwan Strait lead to war, he has a grim warning for Australia. If that conflict that we've been discussing were to eventuate, who would win? You would lose definitely. You don't have enough aircraft. You don't have enough ships. And our military is growing by leaps and bounds. And we are fighting our home turf. And we are determined to safeguard China sovereignty. on that. You can imagine our soldiers would be brave and our weapons would be lethal. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Hopefully.